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Prediction for CME (2023-11-22T06:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-22T06:30Z
CME Note: The source is a large filament eruption from the SE part of disc starting around 2023-11-22T0630 UTC. Note that there is a complex 2023-11-25T07:59Z arrival signature ascribed to the arrival of the 2023-11-22T21:36Z CME, however the signature might potentially include the arrival of 2023-11-22T06:30Z CME in it.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-25T04:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: T2023-11-22T12:41
Radial velocity (km/s): 760
Longitude (deg): 25E
Latitude (deg): 33S
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes: CME from filament eruption in the southeast.
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 21.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-11-24T06:30Z

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